Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Health Management Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
2
Health Management Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Department of Health Services Management, Faculty of Health, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
3
Assistant professor in health economic, health management research center, Baqiyatullah University university of medical sciences, Tehran, Iran
4
PHD of management of healthcare services, health management research center baqiyatallah university of medical science,Tehran,Iran
5
professor of health services management, health management research center, tehran, iran
10.30476/jhmi.2025.104458.1244
Abstract
In general, the main challenge of the epidemic is its long duration and unpredictable end. knowing and investigating the most effective factors in epidemic crisis management can be a beneficial step important issue in any country. Future research is an approach that includes not only understanding possible futures, but also preparing to make decisions for the future. The aim of this article is to develop and analyze a scenario for pandemic crisis management in Iran 2031.
In this research, the 22 factors mentioned and through the analysis of mutual effects in the MICMAC software, the effective factors on crisis management were ranked. After determining the most effective factors, the researchers entered them in the wizard software and created the scenario.
In the analysis of the mutual effects of the factors, seven factors were determined as the key ones in crisis management. After entering them into the Wizard scenario software, 572,321 scenarios were extracted. Five scenarios were selected as the most likely ones for the final analysis.
Managerial time horizon, decision-making quality, financial stability, and crisis management skills emerged as pivotal variables. The findings highlight the necessity of long-term strategic planning, resource allocation, and leadership training to enhance epidemic preparedness.
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