Life Expectancy Forecast: Implications for Policy and Economy in Iran

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Economic Development and Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Economic Research Institute, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran


Introduction: Forecasting health status of populations aims to explain the most likely future
trends in health, such as the life expectancy trend. Life expectancy has grown notably during
the past 150 years. Extended survival leads to population aging that is a world-changing
event. Planning and investing in health and social services require anticipating future life
expectancy and the corresponding drivers. As a developing country, Iran has experienced an
improvement in health and longevity. This study aims to model and forecast life expectancy at
birth up to 2035 and review the economic and policy implications of aging in Iran.
Methods: This study presents a dynamic simulation modeling of life expectancy and proposes
a system dynamics model to give decision-makers an understanding of the interactions
between different variables. The equations in the model are estimated using least-squares
algorithms. The data are derived from the websites of “World Bank”, “Our World in Data”, and
“United Nations Development Program.”
Results: The computerized simulation results forecast that total life expectancy increases by
about 4.5 years from 2018 to 2035, reaching 81.06.
Conclusion: Although improvement in life expectancy is a success and a key goal of a health
system, it also suggests a rapid pace of aging in Iran with many social and economic challenges
in managing the upcoming situations. However, executing appropriate policies can convert
such threats into opportunities.


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